U.S. STRATEGIC COMMAND
U.S. Sen. Arthur Vandenberg asserted that “politics stops at the water’s edge” as he crossed party lines and cooperated with the Truman administration to forge bipartisan support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What became known as the Vandenberg Resolution was passed in June 1948 and led the way for the United States to join NATO.
History may be echoing itself nearly 75 years later across the Atlantic as political parties in Finland and Sweden put partisan politics aside for the sake of their country’s security. In both nations, parties typically on opposite sides of domestic, social and economic issues are joining together in calling for their countries to join NATO, or at least to openly debate it.
It was not always this way. Finland and Sweden have long-standing, proud histories of neutrality in foreign security matters. Polls show that public sentiment in both countries had been resoundingly unfavorable to shedding neutrality for any military alliance. However, since 2014, the trend has been moving in the other direction because those in favor of joining NATO are at the highest peaks since polling on the question began.
In Finland, 28% of the population support joining the alliance, while 42% oppose it in a survey conducted January 3-16, 2022. That is a jump of 8% of support in the past two years and the highest levels in two decades, exceeding even the period of Russia’s 2014 actions in Crimea.
The share of those opposed is also the lowest in two decades. Supporters of the center-right National Coalition party were the most supportive of joining NATO, with 48% for and 35% against the notion, according to the survey conducted by Finnish newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat. Another group of respondents that was relatively welcoming of the notion were supporters of the center-left Green League party, with 35% supporting and 33% opposing membership. Supporters of the Left Alliance, by contrast, remain dubious, with only 7% supporting and 70% opposing it.
This change in public opinion does not seem to have gone unnoticed by Finnish leaders. Finnish President Sauli Niinistöused his New Year’s speech to reiterate that Finland has the right to apply for membership in NATO. That message was also echoed by the prime minister and other Finnish politicians announcing they have realigned themselves to support joining NATO.
There is another key takeaway from the poll: The percentage of Finns who would support NATO goes up by 10 percentage points if Sweden also joins, making those in favor equal to those who oppose. Most security experts expect Finland and Sweden to coordinate any application for NATO membership. Some Swedish experts have warned that Stockholm must prepare to join as Helsinki may act on its own because the debate in Finland is seen as being further along.
In Sweden, the support for NATO membership is even more popular, with Swedes supporting the idea almost neck and neck with those against it, according to a poll conducted in December 2021 by Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter. According to the poll, 33% of the respondents were in favor of applying for NATO membership, while 35% of those surveyed opposed it. About the same amount remained undecided. By comparison, 50% were against sending an application for NATO membership just five years ago, according to a similar annual survey carried out for the past seven years. During that time, resistance to membership has steadily decreased. A clear majority, 59%, also say they are afraid of Russia as a superpower, while 29% say they are afraid of the U.S. as a superpower.
In the Swedish Riksdag, the nation’s parliament, a majority of the parties now favor having Sweden declare its intention to join NATO — although the majority of parliament members are not in favor. The Sweden Democrats joined the rest of the opposition bloc, including the Moderate Party, the Centre Party, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals in now supporting NATO membership. Sweden’s chief opposition leader urged Scandinavian countries to emulate neighboring Finland and emphasize their right to join the NATO military alliance. Even though Sweden’s leading-party, the Swedish Social Democrats, are skeptical about joining the western military alliance, they consistently moved the country significantly closer to NATO in the party’s seven years in government through intelligence sharing and participating in joint exercises. (Pictured: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, center, appears with Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs Pekka Haavisto, left, and Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Ann Linde, right, in January 2022.)
NATO’s position on the expansion to include Finland and Sweden has not changed over time. It has been consistently supportive of Finland’s and Sweden’s freedom to make their own decisions. The choice is not either/or but can be both. Close information sharing and training with NATO without membership and still maintaining friendly diplomatic and economic relations with Russia have been the status quo for decades and do not present any threat to NATO, Russia or the Scandinavian countries.
What has changed? Russia’s actions since the beginning of the 21st century, from the seizure of Crimea to the current crisis in Ukraine, have destroyed Swedes’ and Finns’ perceptions of the stability of their security situation. Russia’s threatening words have turned into actions that threaten its neighbors in other European locations. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaration at the end of 2021 that Sweden and Finland joining NATO would have “serious military and political implications that require appropriate response from the Russian side” prompted Sweden’s center-right Moderate Party leader, Ulf Kristersson, to publicly respond that now is the time for Swedish parties to show a common front on the NATO question.
Russia is bringing political parties in Finland and Sweden closer together on the question of NATO than at any other time in their past. Like the 1948 U.S. debate to join NATO, a credible outside threat motivates otherwise divergent domestic political parties to coalesce. When it comes to which alliances they should join, both Finland and Sweden should continue to leave politics “at the water’s edge” and do what is best for their countries.
IMAGE CREDIT: NATO