The Ukraine war has exposed limits to the security partnership forged by Xi Jinping, left, and Vladimir Putin. AFP/GETTY IMAGES
SUISHENG ZHAO/UNIVERSITY OF DENVER
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the world back to the jungle of great power rivalry, in which power alignment and balance are pivotal. Beijing has aligned with Russia, a great power that shares the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) grievance over U.S. hegemony and stands with the PRC to contain the U.S. The joint statement signed by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on February 4, 2022, just 20 days before the Russian invasion, hailed the partnership as “without limits” and endorsed each other’s foreign policy wish lists, with Russia affirming the PRC’s opposition to “any forms of independence of Taiwan” and the PRC denouncing “further enlargement of NATO.” Although not a green light from Beijing for Russian aggression against Ukraine, the statement signaled that the PRC would help Putin withstand the crippling economic sanctions that the United States and its allies would impose on Russia.
The PRC’s response to the crisis has thus become a test of the limits of the partnership. For many Americans, the Beijing-Moscow axis appears to be built on real commonalities with a strong foundation. Pursuing a dual containment strategy, the U.S. has made it clear that while Russia’s war in Ukraine is an immediate concern, heightening awareness of Russia’s persistent threat, the PRC remains a pacing challenge for the United States. Simultaneously piling pressure on the PRC and Russia, the U.S. compelled them to downplay their conflicts of interest and advance their strategic partnership far beyond the expectations of many observers. Beijing not only refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but also adopted the Russian narrative to blame NATO expansion for driving Russia into a corner.
Behind the rhetoric, Russia’s invasion, however, has put the PRC in an uncomfortable position because the blatant violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity runs against Beijing’s cornerstone foreign policy principles of noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries and respecting state sovereignty and territorial integrity. When Xi Jinping committed to unlimited friendship with Russia in Beijing, it is not clear if Putin informed Xi of his invasion plans. Days before the invasion, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that the “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity” of all countries should be protected, and “Ukraine is no exception.” After Russia sent troops in on February 21, 2022, Chinese leaders still refused to believe war was imminent. The Chinese Embassy in Kyiv had made no evacuation effort or plan until after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. Qing Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S., wrote to the Washington Post newspaper after the invasion that “Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is no good for China. Had China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it.” He thus denied Xi knew in advance of Putin’s invasion.
Beijing was caught off guard by the unprecedented global response to the invasion and power realignment. The PRC aligned with Russia while the United States has deepened its partnerships with the European Union and the rest of the developed world, including many Asian countries, to impose unprecedented sanctions against Russia. The PRC’s international standing is badly damaged by its appearance as a silent partner in Russia’s war. With mounting global outrage and sanctions, Beijing began to see the profound diplomatic and economic costs of being tainted in supporting the Russian invasion.
Although Beijing has not snubbed Moscow for it could worsen its position in the bleak security environment against the U.S., it followed a fine line, calling for de-escalation and negotiations and pointedly abstaining, rather than outright vetoing, U.N. Security Council resolutions related to Russia’s invasion. The PRC also sent emergency humanitarian aid to Ukraine two weeks after the war started. In response to the call for the PRC to use its clout with Moscow to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, Beijing has offered to help stop the bloodshed “when the time is right.” For the first time since the outbreak of the war, Beijing signed the final declaration of G20 leaders in November 2022, condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Beijing had called for a cease-fire and expressed opposition to the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian theater, but never direct criticism of Russia in this magnitude.
These subtle changes signaled that riding an adventurist tiger, the PRC is not fully comfortable with Putin’s mayhem and barbaric war that has damaged the PRC’s strategic and economic interests. Xi’s alignment with Putin has thus presented a Catch-22 for the PRC. While Russia becomes an attractive security partner against the U.S., Beijing has invited pushback it can ill afford by elevating the relationship with Russia amid Putin’s unprovoked war, exposing the limits of the partnership.
Suisheng Zhao is a professor of Chinese politics and foreign policy at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He serves as director of the school’s Center for China-U.S. Cooperation.
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