Top NATO military official warns again of Russian, PRC threat to Arctic

THE WATCH STAFF

The chair of NATO’s Military Committee issued yet another warning in October 2024 about the increasing threat posed to Arctic stability by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia. Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, in his third visit to the Arctic Council, held this year in Reykjavik, said his message, sadly, is becoming a mantra. “My message remains unchanged. There is increased cooperation between Russia and China in this region that has a clear military aspect to it,” Bauer told the council, according to the High North News, a Norwegian newspaper.

Bauer, who is retiring at the end of the year, has served as chair since 2021. “When I first attended the Arctic Circle Assembly conference, the tone and content were different than now. The focus on security in the Arctic has become much stronger,” he said. Bauer noted that 23 of 32 alliance members now spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, up from a handful just a few years ago. Bauer said the belief that the U.S. would “save” NATO members under threat no longer holds much sway. Instead, he said, the alliance is waking up to the reality of a growing threat from the PRC and Russia. In early October, China’s coast guard vessels entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time, patrolling the waters with Russian ships. This summer, the PRC joined Russia in the Ocean 24 exercise across the Arctic Oceans. “This Sino-Russian mission underlines the growing and worrying cooperation between Beijing and Moscow also in the Arctic,” Bauer said.

Russia is also increasingly cooperating with the PRC on minerals and shipping routes — in June 2024, Russia and the PRC announced plans to launch year-round container shipping through the Northern Sea Route, the High North News reported. The PRC’s intentions are troubling, Bauer said. “China talks about itself as a near-Arctic state, which is fascinating. You need quite a lot of imagination to say you’re near the Arctic if you’re China. But that’s what they call themselves,” Bauer said. And the PRC’s recent military interest in the region raises concerns. “We don’t understand why they are in the Arctic. If you don’t understand why a nation with a growing military — and China’s military is growing rapidly, including nuclear weapons — is here, that’s worrisome. It is also not entirely clear why they grow so quickly. So that worries the alliance,” Bauer said.

Unlike the PRC, though, Russia’s expansionist ambitions are clear, especially after the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bauer said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear he wants NATO to withdraw to 1997 treaty lines when eastern European and Baltic countries weren’t allowed to host permanent NATO troops. “Of course, we have said that it is not going to happen because these nations are members of NATO, and they have the same rights as all other nations. But that is what Putin wants. It is not a theory. No, we are not at war, but Russia is our biggest threat, and you should believe this because Putin has shown us many times what he is willing to do,” Bauer said. “Further talks with Russia will serve no purpose. Putin only understands power and strength.”