China’s navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile July 6 from a nuclear-powered submarine — a move that experts said showed Beijing’s increasing skill and capability as part of its nuclear deterrence strategy. The move also drew protests from the United States as well as countries in Asia and the Pacific. It was the second time the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had fired a ballistic missile into international waters in recent years. While it gave some countries in the region prior notice, some said it was not enough notice, and experts say the launch exacerbates tensions around increasing militarization in Asia.
Here’s what we know, and what we don’t, about the missile launch.
Experts think it could be a JL-2 or JL-3
The CCP announced the missile test publicly on July 6 only after the launch, saying that it was fired into the Pacific Ocean. In a brief statement, the official Xinhua News Agency said the launch was part of routine annual training, complied with international law and practice, and was not directed against any country or target. It didn’t provide details about the type of missile.
The missile was carrying a dummy warhead, not a nuclear one. The act of launching in international waters was rare, although the U.S. has also done so with its own missile testing.
Xinhua published a photo of the missile July 7 without additional details. Experts say it could be either a JL-2 or a JL-3, both submarine-launched ballistic missiles, though most said the available imagery was not clear enough to tell. The state-owned tabloid Global Times said it was “most likely” a JL-3 missile with a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers. The JL-2 has a shorter range.
The New Zealand government said the missile was launched into waters in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, violating the intention of the treaty. The zone was established by the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which prohibits nuclear weapons throughout the region. The CCP ratified the protocols in 1987, pledging not to test nuclear weapons within the zone or threaten to use them against signatories with territory in the region.
Australia, Japan and others protest
While the CCP has told other countries to “avoid overinterpretation” in response to the criticism, experts say the concerns from other countries have basis. Much of the concern is a result of lack of clear information, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “China’s military modernization and buildup have occurred without concurrent increases in openness and transparency, resulting in uncertainty about China’s intentions.”
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the CCP did not provide enough notice to the government. Top of Form
Bottom of Form
“There is no doubt that this is a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region,” he told reporters July 7 while in Honiara, Solomon Islands.
“This was a test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile fired from a nuclear-powered submarine. That is of real concern because what we need is less nuclear weapons, certainly not more. And the fact that this test took place yesterday with very little notice is of real concern,” Albanese added.
New Zealand had said the same on July 6, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters calling it “unwelcome and concerning.”
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, also speaking to reporters in Honiara July 7, said that “China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region.”
Test comes amid increasing militarization in Asia
CCP leader Xi Jinping has made modernization of the People’s Liberation Army a top priority in his rule. The CCP already has the largest standing army in the world and the world’s largest navy. While its nuclear arsenal lags that of the U.S. and Russia, it has been actively expanding its stock of nuclear warheads. It has also actively been developing new longer-range missiles and advanced drones.
China’s defense budget, which is projected to be at $270 billion in 2026, has grown at roughly 7% for the past four years, and hovers below 2% of its gross domestic product. However, independent analysis suggests the real spending could be much higher. For example, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates the overall figure for 2024 at $313.7 billion.
Much of the security worries about whether the CCP’s military would get involved in a war center on Taiwan, the self-ruled island the CCP claims as its own and for which it has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. The CCP regularly sends warplanes and navy ships in the waters around the island in what it says are military exercises.
In response to the CCP’s expanding military and activity, countries in the region have increased their own defense spending, including Japan, which is breaking with its long-held cap of 1% of GDP to double the budget to 2%. Meanwhile, the Philippines agreed to allow the U.S. to expand its military presence in the country by adding access to four more bases.
“The Chinese launch exacerbates already deeply strained relations between Beijing and Tokyo. Since (Prime Minister Sanae) Takaichi’s comments last year suggesting that Japan would engage in a conflict over Taiwan, China has tightened export controls on Japan and accused it of embracing a ‘new time of militarism,’” said Emma Chanlett-Avery, director of Political-Security Affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute.